From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”