‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and authorities say supplies are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.